Foundation models for weather science are pre-trained on vast amounts of structured numerical data and outperform traditional weather forecasting systems. However, these models lack language-based reasoning capabilities, limiting their utility in interactive scientific workflows. Large language models (LLMs) excel at understanding and generating text but cannot reason about high-dimensional meteorological datasets. We bridge this gap by building a novel agentic framework for weather science. Our framework includes a Python code-based environment for agents (ZephyrusWorld) to interact with weather data, featuring tools like an interface to WeatherBench 2 dataset, geoquerying for geographical masks from natural language, weather forecasting, and climate simulation capabilities. We design Zephyrus, a multi-turn LLM-based weather agent that iteratively analyzes weather datasets, observes results, and refines its approach through conversational feedback loops. We accompany the agent with a new benchmark, ZephyrusBench, with a scalable data generation pipeline that constructs diverse question-answer pairs across weather-related tasks, from basic lookups to advanced forecasting, extreme event detection, and counterfactual reasoning. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the strong performance of Zephyrus agents over text-only baselines, outperforming them by up to 35 percentage points in correctness. However, on harder tasks, Zephyrus performs similarly to text-only baselines, highlighting the challenging nature of our benchmark and suggesting promising directions for future work.

Although deep learning models have demonstrated remarkable potential in weather prediction, most of them overlook either the \textbf{physics} of the underlying weather evolution or the \textbf{topology} of the Earth's surface. In light of these disadvantages, we develop PASSAT, a novel Physics-ASSisted And Topology-informed deep learning model for weather prediction. PASSAT attributes the weather evolution to two key factors: (i) the advection process that can be characterized by the advection equation and the Navier-Stokes equation; (ii) the Earth-atmosphere interaction that is difficult to both model and calculate. PASSAT also takes the topology of the Earth's surface into consideration, other than simply treating it as a plane. With these considerations, PASSAT numerically solves the advection equation and the Navier-Stokes equation on the spherical manifold, utilizes a spherical graph neural network to capture the Earth-atmosphere interaction, and generates the initial velocity fields that are critical to solving the advection equation from the same spherical graph neural network. In the $5.625^\circ$-resolution ERA5 data set, PASSAT outperforms both the state-of-the-art deep learning-based weather prediction models and the operational numerical weather prediction model IFS T42. Code and checkpoint are available at https://github.com/Yumenomae/PASSAT_5p625.

Urgent applications like wildfire management and renewable energy generation require precise, localized weather forecasts near the Earth's surface. However, weather forecast products from machine learning or numerical weather models are currently generated on a global regular grid, on which a naive interpolation cannot accurately reflect fine-grained weather patterns close to the ground. In this work, we train a heterogeneous graph neural network (GNN) end-to-end to downscale gridded forecasts to off-grid locations of interest. This multi-modal GNN takes advantage of local historical weather observations (e.g., wind, temperature) to correct the gridded weather forecast at different lead times towards locally accurate forecasts. Each data modality is modeled as a different type of node in the graph. Using message passing, the node at the prediction location aggregates information from its heterogeneous neighbor nodes. Experiments using weather stations across the Northeastern United States show that our model outperforms a range of data-driven and non-data-driven off-grid forecasting methods. Our approach demonstrates how the gap between global large-scale weather models and locally accurate predictions can be bridged to inform localized decision-making.

Operational weather forecasting system relies on computationally expensive physics-based models. Recently, transformer based models have shown remarkable potential in weather forecasting achieving state-of-the-art results. However, transformers are discrete models which limit their ability to learn the continuous spatio-temporal features of the dynamical weather system. We address this issue with STC-ViT, a Spatio-Temporal Continuous Vision Transformer for weather forecasting. STC-ViT incorporates the continuous time Neural ODE layers with multi-head attention mechanism to learn the continuous weather evolution over time. The attention mechanism is encoded as a differentiable function in the transformer architecture to model the complex weather dynamics. We evaluate STC-ViT against a operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and several deep learning based weather forecasting models. STC-ViT performs competitively with current data-driven methods in global forecasting while only being trained at lower resolution data and with less compute power.

Weather forecasting, a critical component in industries like transportation and manufacturing, relies heavily on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, which are based on 3D physical models and dynamical equations [1, 2]. For NWP systems to predict future atmospheric states effectively, they require accurate current atmospheric states as initial values. This necessity underscores the importance of a data assimilation (DA) system, which approximates the true atmospheric states by merging observations with prediction results from dynamical models [3]. The integration of a wide range of observations, from sources like aircraft, radiosondes, and satellites, is crucial for enhancing the DA system's accuracy [4]. Traditional methods to assess the impact of observations on weather forecasts include forecast sensitivity to observation (FSO) and its variations, such as ensemble FSO and hybrid FSO [2, 5, 6].

Climate change is one of the most critical challenges that our planet is facing today. Rising global temperatures are already bringing noticeable changes to Earth's weather and climate patterns with an increased frequency of unpredictable and extreme weather events. Future projections for climate change research are based on Earth System Models (ESMs), the computer models that simulate the Earth's climate system. ESMs provide a framework to integrate various physical systems, but their output is bound by the enormous computational resources required for running and archiving higher-resolution simulations. For a given resource budget, the ESMs are generally run on a coarser grid, followed by a computationally lighter $downscaling$ process to obtain a finer-resolution output. In this work, we present a deep-learning model for downscaling ESM simulation data that does not require high-resolution ground truth data for model optimization. This is realized by leveraging salient data distribution patterns and the hidden dependencies between weather variables for an $\textit{individual}$ data point at $\textit{runtime}$. Extensive evaluation with $2$x, $3$x, and $4$x scaling factors demonstrates that the proposed model consistently obtains superior performance over that of various baselines. The improved downscaling performance and no dependence on high-resolution ground truth data make the proposed method a valuable tool for climate research and mark it as a promising direction for future research.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful tool for optimal control that has found great success in Atari games, the game of Go, robotic control, and building optimization. RL is also very brittle; agents often overfit to their training environment and fail to generalize to new settings. Unsupervised environment design (UED) has been proposed as a solution to this problem, in which the agent trains in environments that have been specially selected to help it learn. Previous UED algorithms focus on trying to train an RL agent that generalizes across a large distribution of environments. This is not necessarily desirable when we wish to prioritize performance in one environment over others. In this work, we will be examining the setting of robust RL building control, where we wish to train an RL agent that prioritizes performing well in normal weather while still being robust to extreme weather conditions. We demonstrate a novel UED algorithm, ActivePLR, that uses uncertainty-aware neural network architectures to generate new training environments at the limit of the RL agent's ability while being able to prioritize performance in a desired base environment. We show that ActivePLR is able to outperform state-of-the-art UED algorithms in minimizing energy usage while maximizing occupant comfort in the setting of building control.

Maize, a crucial crop globally cultivated across vast regions, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America, occupies 197 million hectares as of 2021. Various statistical and machine learning models, including mixed-effect models, random coefficients models, random forests, and deep learning architectures, have been devised to predict maize yield. These models consider factors such as genotype, environment, genotype-environment interaction, and field management. However, the existing models often fall short of fully exploiting the complex network of causal relationships among these factors and the hierarchical structure inherent in agronomic data. This study introduces an innovative approach integrating random effects into Bayesian networks (BNs), leveraging their capacity to model causal and probabilistic relationships through directed acyclic graphs. Rooted in the linear mixed-effects models framework and tailored for hierarchical data, this novel approach demonstrates enhanced BN learning. Application to a real-world agronomic trial produces a model with improved interpretability, unveiling new causal connections. Notably, the proposed method significantly reduces the error rate in maize yield prediction from 28% to 17%. These results advocate for the preference of BNs in constructing practical decision support tools for hierarchical agronomic data, facilitating causal inference.

Designing spatio-temporal forecasting models separately in a task-wise and city-wise manner poses a burden for the expanding transportation network companies. Therefore, a multi-task learning architecture is proposed in this study by developing gated ensemble of spatio-temporal mixture of experts network (GESME-Net) with convolutional recurrent neural network (CRNN), convolutional neural network (CNN), and recurrent neural network (RNN) for simultaneously forecasting spatio-temporal tasks in a city as well as across different cities. Furthermore, a task adaptation layer is integrated with the architecture for learning joint representation in multi-task learning and revealing the contribution of the input features utilized in prediction. The proposed architecture is tested with data from Didi Chuxing for: (i) simultaneously forecasting demand and supply-demand gap in Beijing, and (ii) simultaneously forecasting demand across Chengdu and Xian. In both scenarios, models from our proposed architecture outperformed the single-task and multi-task deep learning benchmarks and ensemble-based machine learning algorithms.

Precise crop yield prediction is essential for improving agricultural practices and ensuring crop resilience in varying climates. Integrating weather data across the growing season, especially for different crop varieties, is crucial for understanding their adaptability in the face of climate change. In the MLCAS2021 Crop Yield Prediction Challenge, we utilized a dataset comprising 93,028 training records to forecast yields for 10,337 test records, covering 159 locations across 28 U.S. states and Canadian provinces over 13 years (2003-2015). This dataset included details on 5,838 distinct genotypes and daily weather data for a 214-day growing season, enabling comprehensive analysis. As one of the winning teams, we developed two novel convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures: the CNN-DNN model, combining CNN and fully-connected networks, and the CNN-LSTM-DNN model, with an added LSTM layer for weather variables. Leveraging the Generalized Ensemble Method (GEM), we determined optimal model weights, resulting in superior performance compared to baseline models. The GEM model achieved lower RMSE (5.55% to 39.88%), reduced MAE (5.34% to 43.76%), and higher correlation coefficients (1.1% to 10.79%) when evaluated on test data. We applied the CNN-DNN model to identify top-performing genotypes for various locations and weather conditions, aiding genotype selection based on weather variables. Our data-driven approach is valuable for scenarios with limited testing years. Additionally, a feature importance analysis using RMSE change highlighted the significance of location, MG, year, and genotype, along with the importance of weather variables MDNI and AP.